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quarta-feira, agosto 01, 2012

BRAZIL: Industrial production disappoints AGAIN - part II

Industrial Production Jun/12: +0.2%m/m (Santander: +1.0%m/m, consensus: +0.8%m/m, previous: -1.0%m/m)

First thoughts: The industrial production performance disappointed once again. Our positive expectation was due basically to the recovery of the durable goods production, which indeed increased 4.8%m/m. Actually, the worse than expected result was motivated by the intermediary industry, the only use category that registered negative result at the margin in June (-0.9%m/m), but which represents almost 60% of the total industry – it is important to bear in mind that there are no relevant leading indicators for intermediary industry, which makes it more difficult to anticipate movements from this category.
But, the main point is that this disappointing outcome led the second quarter/12 result to become even more negative than we forecasted (-1.1%q/q versus -0.8%q/q estimated) – it was the fifth consecutive negative quarter result – which likely suggests a GDP growth more close to 0%q/q than 0.5%q/q.
Additionally, this result brought the accumulated in 12 months to -2.3%, with all use categories in a negative path. 

• Bottom line: We still expect that the industrial sector may show some upturn from the second semester due to a combination of government incentives and monetary policy. However, our current forecast for the indsutrial production of 0.5% in 2012 gains negative bias.

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