• Industrial Production Jun/12: +0.2%m/m (Santander:
+1.0%m/m, consensus: +0.8%m/m, previous: -1.0%m/m)
• First thoughts: The industrial production
performance disappointed once again. Our positive expectation was due
basically to the recovery of the durable goods production, which indeed
increased 4.8%m/m. Actually, the worse than expected result was motivated by the
intermediary industry, the only use category that registered negative result at
the margin in June (-0.9%m/m), but which represents almost 60% of the total
industry – it is important to bear in mind that there are no relevant leading
indicators for intermediary industry, which makes it more difficult to
anticipate movements from this category.
main point is that this disappointing outcome led the second quarter/12 result
to become even more negative than we forecasted (-1.1%q/q versus -0.8%q/q
estimated) – it was the fifth consecutive negative quarter result – which likely
suggests a GDP growth more close to 0%q/q than 0.5%q/q.
Additionally, this result brought the accumulated in 12 months to
-2.3%, with all use categories in a negative path.
• Bottom line: We still expect that the industrial sector
may show some upturn from the second semester due to a combination of government
incentives and monetary policy. However, our current forecast for the indsutrial
production of 0.5% in 2012 gains negative bias.