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sexta-feira, julho 20, 2012

Brazil (July IPCA-15) - Looking ahead, the inflation seems to be changing gears, with the “well behaved inflation” fading away

· IPCA-15 July/12: +0.33%m/m (Consensus: +0.17%m/m; Santander: +0.22%m/m, 12 months accumulated: 5.24%)

· First thoughts: Usually, the well behaved inflation between June and August is mainly due to the deflation of the foodstuff prices. However this year, the behavior of foodstuff inflation completely differs from the seasonal pattern: comparing with July/11 IPCA-15 (0.10%m/m), the foodstuff inflation contribution was -0.09 p.p., and comparing with July/10 IPCA-15(-0.09% m/m), the foodstuff contributed with -0.19 p.p.. The inflation acceleration in July would have been even higher were it not for the car prices deflation, which contributed with -0.12 p.p. mainly due to the IPI reduction in the new cars prices. Given that, the 12-month IPCA-15 rose to 5.24% from 5.0% registered in June.

· Bottom line: Actually, the inflation acceleration in July was a surprise for us. We were not expecting a counter seasonality behavior of foodstuff inflation. Going into details for the short run, we believe that foodstuff inflation should present some deceleration in the end of July and through August. Also, apparel prices should decline due to the season of winter sales between August and September. This backdrop combined with the high inflation during August – September of 2011 will still promote some downward trend in the IPCA accumulated in 12 months. But now we forecast IPCA at 4.8% in 3Q12, while before we expected 4.6% for IPCA in 3Q12. Looking ahead, the inflation seems to be changing gears, with the “well behaved inflation” fading away. The diffusion index that usually recedes between June and August remained unchanged at 62%. The services prices inflation picked up, pressured mainly by rents and housekeeper wages, and these sources of pressures likely will not disappear in a scenario of wholesale inflation acceleration.

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