Primary Surplus Jun: R$ 2.8billion (consensus: R$ 3.6 billion, previous:
result added only to R$ 2.8 billion, totaling R$ 65.7 billion in the first half
of this year, or 3.1% of GDP, well below of the 3.9% obtained in the same period
in 2011. In the last 12 months, the primary surplus result was R$ 116.2 billion,
or 2.7% of GDP, also well below the observed in the year-end 2011 and below the
target stipulated for 2012 (3.1% of GDP).
Additionally, the net public sector debt (DLSP) of GDP rose from 35%
in May to 35.1% in June. In December 2011 this indicator was 36.4% of
line: In our
view, the weak results of recent months due to a combination of (1) the
deceleration on rate growth of the tax collections as a result of the current
expansionary fiscal policy and the economic activity slowdown and (2) the
non-achievement of the budget cut of $ 55 billion announced earlier this year
given that personnel expenses and charges continue growing, even at slower pace
than last year.
believe that it is increasingly difficult for the government to achieve the
"full" fiscal target of 3.1% of GDP (primary surplus) this year.