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terça-feira, julho 31, 2012

Brazil: Fiscal target is farthest

Primary Surplus Jun: R$ 2.8billion (consensus: R$ 3.6 billion, previous: R$ 2.6billion)

• First thoughts: The result added only to R$ 2.8 billion, totaling R$ 65.7 billion in the first half of this year, or 3.1% of GDP, well below of the 3.9% obtained in the same period in 2011. In the last 12 months, the primary surplus result was R$ 116.2 billion, or 2.7% of GDP, also well below the observed in the year-end 2011 and below the target stipulated for 2012 (3.1% of GDP).

Additionally, the net public sector debt (DLSP) of GDP rose from 35% in May to 35.1% in June. In December 2011 this indicator was 36.4% of GDP.

• Bottom line: In our view, the weak results of recent months due to a combination of (1) the deceleration on rate growth of the tax collections as a result of the current expansionary fiscal policy and the economic activity slowdown and (2) the non-achievement of the budget cut of $ 55 billion announced earlier this year given that personnel expenses and charges continue growing, even at slower pace than last year.
Thus, we believe that it is increasingly difficult for the government to achieve the "full" fiscal target of 3.1% of GDP (primary surplus) this year.

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