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quinta-feira, junho 07, 2012

Brazil (May IPCA): heading to the year's low

· May IPCA: +0.36%m/m (Consensus: +0.43%m/m; Santander: +0.46%m/m, 12 months accumulated: 4.99%)

· First thoughts: Comparing with the May/11 IPCA-15 (0.47%m/m), the main contributions for inflation deceleration were transport deflation ( -0.58% m/m ) that contributed with -0.12 p.p. to the headline, mainly due to the fuel deflation (contribution of -0.03 p.p.) and car prices deflation (contribution of -0.04 p.p.), communication deflation (-0.19% m/m) thanks to the deflation in the tariff of fixed-to-mobile calls for several cities that compose the IPCA, lower inflation in apparel and housing. Comparing with our forecast for IPCA May/12, surprises were lower housing inflation, and higher deflation in gas price. 

· Bottom line: The inflation deceleration between April IPCA (0.64% m/m) and May IPCA is in line with the expectation for this month: the pressure came from the readjustment of medicine prices and the hike in the cigarette prices should diminished through May , additionally deflation car prices deflation helped to boost the deceleration trend. Looking ahead, we expect more inflation deceleration in June; our forecast for IPCA June is 0.20% (versus a consensus forecast of 0.25% m/m), as a result of some deceleration in foodstuff inflation, and further deflation in transport (thanks to the effect of sugar cane harvest and the effect of tax reduction on the car prices) and communication. We believe that the deceleration inflation might have been higher if it were not for the acceleration of regulated prices ( hike in the taxi (+5.3%) and piped gas (+10.3%) tariffs in São Paulo). Our forecast for cumulative inflation in 2Q12 is 1.20%, while consensus stands at 1.25%. Additionally, it is worth noting that the tradable disinflation seems to have lost steam, likely as a consequence of weaker BRL. Actually, tradable inflation accumulated +1% between April and May versus the deflation of 0.2% in 1Q12.

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