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quinta-feira, junho 14, 2012

IOF sobre empréstimos / Intercompany loans

IOF sobre empréstimos / Intercompany loans

O Decreto 7.751, publicado na edição do Diário Oficial desta quinta-feira,
altera a legislação do IOF no que diz respeito às liquidações de câmbio
para ingresso de recursos no país referente a empréstimos externos. O prazo
médio mínimo cai de 1.800 dias (cinco anos) para 720 dias (dois anos). A
alíquota se mantém em 6%.

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terça-feira, junho 12, 2012

Brazil GDP and Selic Forecast Revisions

Brazil GDP and Selic Forecast Revisions
What Is 1Q12 GDP Really Telling Us about the Economy?


Source: Santander Maurício Molan and Fernanda Consorte

- Headline GDP disappointed—however, the recovery of the services and manufacturing sectors is already under way.
- Consumption is very strong, which does not corroborate the deleveraging thesis; however, weak investments (due to poor productivity and competitiveness) suggest lower potential growth.
- Demand/supply imbalance has increased and tends to be further inflated by government actions.
- We revised our 2012E GDP to 2.2% (from 3.5%), but we still expect a major recovery in 2013, when we expect GDP to grow 4.7%. Potential growth is currently much lower than we previously thought.
- Low inflation and disappointing headline GDP provide room for further monetary policy easing. We also revised our 2012E Selic to 7.75% (from 8.25%) and year-end 2013 forecast to 9.25% from 9.75%.

Introduction: Off to a Bad Start
No doubt Brazil's first quarter headline GDP figure disappointed, particularly as it defined a much lower-than-expected carry-over for 2012 statistics, triggering across-the-board forecast revisions. Growth measured by year-on-year quarterly averages (the most common figure followed in Brazil) is heavily dependent on output performance at the end of one year and the beginning of the following one, as this period sets the departure point for the numerator to be completed by following the quarter's releases. Even our economic forecast, which has recently been more optimistic than consensus regarding the performance of domestic demand, will have to be adjusted after results surprised us.
The following chart illustrates the carry-over effect. Maintaining our QoQ sa forecasts at 0.7%, 2% and 2% for 2Q12, 3Q12 and 4Q12, respectively, and adjusting 1Q12 from 0.7% (our expectation) to 0.2% (actual figure) resulted in declines in average forecast growth from 3.5% to 2.7%.

But beyond the headline and carry-over effects, a deeper analysis of the GDP report suggests that the current state of Brazil's economy is not as negative as originally thought, and the recent trend seems benign: (1) the industry and services sectors performed well (were it not for the negative 7.3% reading of the agriculture sector due to crop loss, QoQ sa GDP would have posted a 0.9% [3.7% annualized] increase); (2) household consumption remains strong; and (3) domestic demand is accelerating (actually, increasing supply/demand imbalances).

In terms of monetary policy, figures suggest domestic absorption is accelerating, while supply and potential growth seem to be converging toward a much slower pace. Further stimulus measures (including interest rate reductions) will probably be adopted, as uncertainties and downside risks for headline GDP remain. However, we see increasing risks for inflation after 3Q12 (when most of the benign effects of lower public tariffs will favor a lower IPCA).

Decent and Improving Performance of Industry and Services
Surprising figures came in from the agricultural sector due to soybean crop losses, which reduced the 1Q12 QoQ sa GDP figure by some 0.5 p.p. Although a permanent loss for average 2012 GDP, this event will not likely be repeated in future readings. On the contrary, given that the performance of agriculture in the second quarter is relatively independent from what took place in the first quarter, we should expect an important positive contribution in the upcoming period.

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segunda-feira, junho 11, 2012

Brazil Economics & Strategy : That sinking feeling; downgrading our GDP growth forecasts

 Brazil Economics & Strategy : That sinking feeling; downgrading our GDP  
 growth forecasts    
                                                     
                                                                                                                                                       
  * In light of weaker data, we lower our 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts to  
  2.5% and 3.8%, respectively                                             
                                                                          
  * We believe that the BCB will cut the Selic rate to 7.5% (-50 bps in   
  July and -25 bps in August and October) and then hold through the end of
  2013                                                                    
                                                                          
  * We see value in receiving rates under our lowered SELIC forecast; on  
  FX, we believe the BCB will continue to manage a range for USD-BRL of   
  1.95-2.10                                                               
                                                                          
  On the back of evidence of weak investment and signs that the services  
  sector may be faltering, we downgrade our growth forecast for 2012      
  further, to 2.5% (that is, below last year's growth rate of 2.7%). For  
  2013, we lower our forecast to 3.8% (from 4%). We also lower our IPCA   
  inflation forecasts for 2012 (from 5.2% to 5%) and 2013 (from 5.8% to   
  5.5%).                                                                  
                                                                          
  Regarding monetary policy, concerns with misfiring growth will, in our  
  view, lead the Central Bank to cut rates more aggressively this year. We
  now forecast that the Central Bank will continue to ease monetary policy
  by applying a 50 bps cut at the July meeting, followed by two subsequent
  25bps cuts in the August and October Copom meetings, bringing the Selic 
  policy rate to a year-end level of 7.5%. For 2013, we still expect the  
  Central Bank to keep rates unchanged, at 7.5%.                          
                                                                          
  Sharply increased volatility has become a mainstay of local rates in    
  Brazil, but we see value in receiving the front end of the curve. Under 
  our new SELIC forecast, fair value of the Jan'14 DI contract is about   
  70bp below current trading levels. We recommend staying away from the   
  long end of the curve. On FX policy, for now, the BCB has been selling  
  USD via swaps supporting a stable BRL as the costs of a weak BRL policy 
  become more apparent. We think this strategy will prevail with the BRL  
  trading in a wide range between 1.95-2.10/USD. However, we recognize that
  economic conditions are shifting quickly making it more difficult to    
  predict policy changes.

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sábado, junho 09, 2012

Após ata do Copom, BTG Pactual projeta Selic em 7,5% ao ano para final 2012

Após ata do Copom, BTG Pactual projeta Selic em 7,5% ao ano para final 2012

08 de junho de 2012 • 15h54 Por: Marcel Teixeira do Infomoney
 
SÃO PAULO – A equipe de economia do BTG Pactual revisou suas projeções para a Selic e agora espera que a taxa básica de juro da economia brasileira termine 2012 em 7,5% ao ano. Segundo o banco, a redução praticamente certa para 8,0% ao ano na próxima reunião do Copom (Comitê de Política Monetária) em julho e as melhores perspectivas de inflação doméstica colaboram para essa revisão.
O BTG acredita que essa redução será realizada em duas etapas, com cortes de 50 pontos-base nos próximos dois encontros do comitê - um em 11 de julho e outro em 29 de agosto.

Outros dois cenáriosO banco também trabalha com dois outros cenários, dependendo das condições da economia nos próximos meses. Em um deles, o BTG estima corte um corte de 50 pb na reunião de julho seguido de outros dois cortes de 25 p.b. cada nos encontros do comitê em agosto e outubro.
O outro cenário é ainda mais arrojado, com previsão de cortes de 50 p.b. nos próximos dois encontros, somados a um corte de 25 p.b. em outubro, jogando a Selic para 7,25% a.a.
Vale lembrar que em seu último encontro, o Copom reduziu a Selic em 0,50 ponto percentual, indo para 8,5% ao ano - seu menor patamar histórico.

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sexta-feira, junho 08, 2012

BRAZIL: Copom Minutes: No big news

· Minutes from the May 29-30 Copom meeting

· First thoughts: Very little changing in wording. Using current data (market expectations for inflation and current exchange rate and Selic), inflation forecasted by the Central Bank remains around the target for this year (a reduction in the market scenario, that takes into account the market forecasts for those variables) but higher than 4.5% in 2013. However, the fact that they added that the economic recovery has been very gradual following the stronger than anticipated slowdown last year. But, more importantly, the infamous paragraph 35 (now 34), which had been key for signaling the next decision by the monetary authority, remained unchanged, keeping the “any movement of further monetary loosening shall be conducted with parsimony” bit. In the April meeting, the addition of the word “parsimony” led the market to price in lower cuts in the next meetings (two 50 bps and on 25 bps cuts, whilst we changed our view to one 50 bps and one 25 bps cut) and foresee the end of the loosening cycle soon. This minute seems to have done little, if nothing, to change those expectations.

· Bottom line: This minutes contributed very little to change everyone’s expectations concerning the next decisions by Copom. We maintain our expectation that the next meeting may bring a 25 bps cut, bringing the Selic rate to 8.25% p.a., the last one in the cycle. However, we admit that the minutes left the door open for another 50 bps cut, as expected by the market that is still thinking about the basic rate at 7.75% p.a. by Jan. 2013.

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quinta-feira, junho 07, 2012

Brazil (May IPCA): heading to the year's low

· May IPCA: +0.36%m/m (Consensus: +0.43%m/m; Santander: +0.46%m/m, 12 months accumulated: 4.99%)

· First thoughts: Comparing with the May/11 IPCA-15 (0.47%m/m), the main contributions for inflation deceleration were transport deflation ( -0.58% m/m ) that contributed with -0.12 p.p. to the headline, mainly due to the fuel deflation (contribution of -0.03 p.p.) and car prices deflation (contribution of -0.04 p.p.), communication deflation (-0.19% m/m) thanks to the deflation in the tariff of fixed-to-mobile calls for several cities that compose the IPCA, lower inflation in apparel and housing. Comparing with our forecast for IPCA May/12, surprises were lower housing inflation, and higher deflation in gas price. 

· Bottom line: The inflation deceleration between April IPCA (0.64% m/m) and May IPCA is in line with the expectation for this month: the pressure came from the readjustment of medicine prices and the hike in the cigarette prices should diminished through May , additionally deflation car prices deflation helped to boost the deceleration trend. Looking ahead, we expect more inflation deceleration in June; our forecast for IPCA June is 0.20% (versus a consensus forecast of 0.25% m/m), as a result of some deceleration in foodstuff inflation, and further deflation in transport (thanks to the effect of sugar cane harvest and the effect of tax reduction on the car prices) and communication. We believe that the deceleration inflation might have been higher if it were not for the acceleration of regulated prices ( hike in the taxi (+5.3%) and piped gas (+10.3%) tariffs in São Paulo). Our forecast for cumulative inflation in 2Q12 is 1.20%, while consensus stands at 1.25%. Additionally, it is worth noting that the tradable disinflation seems to have lost steam, likely as a consequence of weaker BRL. Actually, tradable inflation accumulated +1% between April and May versus the deflation of 0.2% in 1Q12.

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BRAZIL: weak auto vehicle´s production

· Anfavea Mai/12: -7.7%y/y (previous: -7.5%y/y)

· First thoughts: The auto vehicles production remains weak, as expected. Considering the seasonal adjusted data (using the same industrial production method) the vehicles production decreased 2.2%m/m for the second month in a row. In others words, if the second quarter would have finished in May, the second quarter would have decreased 1%q/q. We already expected a poor performance of the auto production due to the rise in the inventories registered in the 1Q. This will affect the performance of the total industrial production in May - it is worth noting that the auto sector is a relevant segment in the Brazilian industry, weighting 10% but probably affecting 20% of the total production through its impact into the whole industrial chain.
Indeed the May´s auto result is suggesting that the industrial production is going to register another decline at margin (probably close to -1%m/m). 

· Bottom line: This result added to the still weak global demand and competitiveness barriers suggests that the industrial production remains weak and, differently to the 1Q, it will likely to not contribute positively in the 2Q GDP accounts. On the other hand, we understand that the recently government measures can help the auto industry from June onward; additionally, we do not expect the industry to contribute negatively (despite still poor) to GDP from 3Q12 due to: (1) the conclusion of the inventory adjustment, (2) the still strong consumption performance and (3) the lagged and cumulative effects of monetary policy.

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