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quinta-feira, maio 17, 2012

Brazil: Retail sales grew double-digit pace

· - Retail Sales mar/12: +0.2%m/m (Consensus: +0.2%m/m; Santander: +0.7%m/m, previous: 0.0%m/m)

·- First thoughts: As expected the retail sales registered a double-digit growth pace in the year-over-year comparison (+12.5% a/a) and the February data was upward reviewed to 10.6%y/y and 0.0%m/m versus 9.6%y/y and -0.5%m/m. With today´s output, retail sales grew 4.1% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, in line with our expectation. In the broad concept (including construction material and vehicles), the result showed a surprisingly good performance with an increase of 0.6% at the margin and a high of 3.0% in the accumulated result of the quarter. 

· - Bottom line: It is important bear in mind that the retail sales remain posting better performance than the industrial production, and it was intensified in the 1Q12. This discrepancy, in our view, will likely be the responsible for a positive result in the GDP growth of the 1Q12, which we expect to be of 1.0%q/q. Considering the current labor market conditions, we continue very optimistic about the retail sales in this year.

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