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quarta-feira, maio 09, 2012

Brazil (April IPCA): April's final details

· Apr12 IPCA: +0.64%m/m (Consensus: +0.59%m/m; Santander: +0.60%m/m, 12 months accumulated: 5.10%)

· First thoughts: Comparing with the Apr/11 IPCA (0.77%m/m), the main contributions for inflation deceleration were apparel, transport, mainly due to the fuel inflation ( -0.07% m/m vs 6.5% m/m posted in Apr/11) and foodstuff away from home (0.31% m/m vs 0.75% m/m). Comparing with our forecast for IPCA-15 Apr/12, surprises were higher apparel and communication inflation, due to inflation acceleration in fixed telephone tariffs, which we believe should result in deflation in May IPCA. Comparing with the March/12 IPCA, the seasonal pressures coming from apparel inflation, and further pressures from personal expenditures (mainly due to the hike in cigarettes prices and in housekeeper wages), and health (due to the hike in medicine prices) were the main contributions for the outcome.

· Bottom line: The inflation acceleration between March IPCA (0.21% m/m) and April IPCA (0.64% m/m) is in line with a list of inflationary pressures that are expected for this month: the price of medicine readjustment, the hike in the cigarette prices, thanks to the tax increase (on April 6), the water and sewer tariffs annual readjustment in some cities, the crop shortfall of beans (in April), and the seasonal hike in apparel prices. Looking forward, inflation in May should post deceleration from April, as a result of some deceleration in apparel inflation, and deflation in transport (thanks to the sugar cane harvest) and communication. We forecast 0.44% m/m (versus a consensus forecast of 0.47% m/m), and our forecast for cumulative inflation in 2Q12 is 1.25%, while consensus stands at 1.40%. Additionally, it is worth noting that the tradable disinflation seems to have lost steam, likely as a consequence of weaker BRL.

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