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quarta-feira, abril 25, 2012

Brazil: better credit conditions in March

· Credit Mar/12: +1.7%m/m (Santander: +2.0%m/m, previous: +0.4%m/m)

· As anticipated the March credit data showed improve compared to the previous month: the credit grew 1.7%m/m due to the earmarked and non-earmarked credit, the grantings registered somewhat increase. It was also observed decreased in the interest rate and spreads (both to individual and corporate) and the average maturity posted expansion. It is important bear in mind that this data refers to March, so the drop off in the interest rate was not provided by the public banks, this movement is likely to be seen in April´s data. 

This better performance is likely due to the decline in the delinquency rate (5.7% versus 5.8% in February) – motivated especially by the individuals delinquency rate which decreased to 7.4% versus 7.6% reached in previous month. Indeed, we already expected decrease in the delinquency rate, as a result of the current favorable conditions in labor market and the better financials conditions, as we can see in the debt burden indicators. On the other hand, the individual´s delinquency rate of vehicles remained increasing, reaching the highest level of the historical series (5.7%), and it may continue to deteriorate the credit to this segment since the credit suppliers will likely remain cautious. 

· Bottom line: The credit market may continue to improve in upcoming months as a result of the current favorable conditions in labor market and the low basic interest rate. But we expect some changes in the mix of segments, for example, the credit to vehicles may decrease while the credit to housing may gain some room.

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