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terça-feira, abril 24, 2012

Brazil (April IPCA-15): April's details

· Apr12 IPCA-15: +0.43%m/m (Consensus: +0.37%m/m; Santander: +0.37%m/m, 12 months accumulated: 5.25%)

· First thoughts: Comparing with the Apr/11 IPCA-15 (0.77%m/m), the main contributions for inflation deceleration were foodstuff, apparel and transport, mainly due to the fuel inflation (0.4% m/m vs 5.3% m/m posted in Apr/11) and foodstuff away from home (0.3% m/m vs 0.9% m/m). Comparing with our forecast for IPCA-15 Apr/12, surprises were inflation acceleration in housing, thanks to the hike in rent and condominium fee ( 0.8% m/m and 1% m/m, respectively) and communication, due to inflation acceleration in fixed telephone tariffs, which we believe should be zero in April IPCA. Comparing with the March/12 IPCA, the seasonal pressures coming from apparel inflation, and further pressures from personal expenditures (mainly due to the hike in cigarettes prices and in housekeeper wages), and health (due to the hike in medicine prices) were the main contributions for the outcome.

· Bottom line: The inflation acceleration between March IPCA (0.21% m/m) and April IPCA-15 (0.43% m/m) is in line with a list of inflationary pressures that are expected for this month: the price of medicine was readjusted about 2.81% on average (on April 1), there was a hike in the cigarette prices of 24%, thanks to the tax increase (on April 6), the water and sewer tariffs had a readjustment of 11% on average in some cities with weights about 22% in the regional composition of the IPCA (between the end of March and beginning of April), the crop shortfall of beans (in April), and the seasonal hike in apparel prices. Thus, we forecast 0.61% m/m for April IPCA (versus a consensus forecast of 0.54% m/m), and our forecast for cumulative inflation in 2Q12 is 1.15%, while consensus stands at 1.30%. Additionally, it is worth noting that the tradable disinflation seems to have lost steam, likely as a consequence of weaker BRL.

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