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quinta-feira, outubro 01, 2009

Wakeup call - 01.10.09

ISM Manufacturing to disappoint?

Chicago PMI was much worse than expected yesterday - especially new orders and order backlogs were poor.

· A lot of data out today. Most important is probably the ISM Manufacturing. We believe that it could disappoint by coming out at 51 or below.

· Despite a lower than expected Chicago PMI, stocks were able to regain the lost territory and the HY universe is still doing okay.

· EUR is under pressure from event-risk: Today, Ireland will be voting on the Lisbon Treaty and at a “no”, the EC faces a tough challenge, which perhaps would lead to a “two-phased” Europe.

· Most treasury markets show strength and are about to make new highs. Watch Bunds.

· SNB intervened yesterday and sent EURCHF two figures higher. It fell back one figure, though.

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