Wakeup call - 04.09.09
Watch out for Nonfarm Payrolls
Weekly Jobless Claims and ADP Employment Change don't support a lower than expected NFP.
· Gold has rallied $50 in two days and threatens to break the $1000 mark again – despite the fact that US 10-year break-even inflation rates have fallen 30 bps. in the past month. Look for $1006 today.
· Stocks at a crossroads: The market will probably be muted until the NFP and Unemployment Rate later today. Regardless of the number play the break of 1004 and 992 in S&P500.
· Note that the US labor participation rate has dropped a record 0.4% in the past two months. That has been keeping the Unemployment Rate lower than it otherwise would have been. Therefore, we see a real chance that the Unemployment Rate could come out at 9.6% today. An NFP reading below 250K is neither supported by the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims nor the ADP from Wednesday. Stand by for disappointment today.
Marcadores: Payroll
posted by Daniel Brandão de Castro at 9/04/2009 11:03:00 AM
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