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sexta-feira, setembro 04, 2009

Wakeup call - 04.09.09

Watch out for Nonfarm Payrolls

Weekly Jobless Claims and ADP Employment Change don't support a lower than expected NFP.

· Gold has rallied $50 in two days and threatens to break the $1000 mark again – despite the fact that US 10-year break-even inflation rates have fallen 30 bps. in the past month. Look for $1006 today.

· Stocks at a crossroads: The market will probably be muted until the NFP and Unemployment Rate later today. Regardless of the number play the break of 1004 and 992 in S&P500.

· Note that the US labor participation rate has dropped a record 0.4% in the past two months. That has been keeping the Unemployment Rate lower than it otherwise would have been. Therefore, we see a real chance that the Unemployment Rate could come out at 9.6% today. An NFP reading below 250K is neither supported by the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims nor the ADP from Wednesday. Stand by for disappointment today.

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