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quinta-feira, junho 25, 2009

Our Mood for Today

Good Morning!

Not too much to say today. Just mention that the good mood from yesterday still persists... At least for the currency and interest rate markets around here with the BRL beating USD and the Rates going down especially on the short end of the curve.

FGV released this morning the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) for June that rose for the second consecutive month. At the margin the index increased by 4.1% and, as a result, the annual change was -0.7%, compared to -10.9% a month earlier. Similarly, the Current Situation Index augmented 5.3% and the Expectation Index rose 4.4%.

IBGE have published its monthly survey of employment (PME) for the month of May. It came better than market consensus at 8.8%, from 8.9% a month earlier. Good news!

Later today the Central Bank issues its monthly report on the credit market. The recovery in economic activity should drive faster growth in credit, although it is unlikely to return to the pace seen before the global crisis intensified at the end of the third quarter. Total credit could reach about 45% of GDP by end-2009.

Also today will be release by the National Treasury announces the central-government primary result for May. We estimate a deficit of R$1.0 billion, reflecting the fall in federal tax revenue confirmed by the results published last week, as well as the fact that expenditure has remained high, especially current spending. This result remains significantly down compared not only with May 2008 but with the same month in several recent years.

Analyzing each market now:

- Currency Market: Let's BUY BRL!!!!

- Interest Rate Market: We uphold our call and consider that some LONG position should now be considered on the JAN 12 DI contract...

- Stock Exchange Market: Profit taking movement? Let's check US market to realize that...

- Sovereign and Corporate Debt Market: Brazil 5 Y CDS is trading around 192 bps (+3 bps) and BR40 around 234 SOT (-8 bps).

All the Best and Good Trades !

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