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terça-feira, maio 19, 2009

Tradewire Market Update

The equity market had an unexpectedly strong performance to start the week
with the S&P index rising by over 3%. The good news came early in the
morning with Goldman Sachs (GS) placing Bank of America (BAC) to its
'conviction buy' list; reports that both GS, JPM and MS had applied to repay
the TARP funds (with rumors that Goldman might do it as early as this week)
also helped propel the financial sector higher. It was the best performing
industry sector, rising by almost 7% after seeing a drop of nearly 13% last

Also helping the market was the hombuilding sector, which rose by almost 9%
on better than expected results from Lowe's (LOW), the nation's second
largest home improvement chain as well as on an improvement in the NAHB
Housing Market Index (second monthly consecutive rise). Shares of energy
companies also rose along with the price of oil which jumped by over 5% to
$59.21 by 3:30pm EST (this was also partly due to some Nigerian supply
concerns). Eight of the nine industry sectors finished in positive territory
today with the exception of Utilities which finished flat.

Technically, last week's weakness was limited to the 21-day MA as well as
the bottom of an ascending channel dating back to early April placing
support around the 875/80 region for ESM9 {97}. Participants were
expecting a break lower given the weak close on Friday and early overnight
weakness as well as a turn lower in momentum and trending indicators.
However, today's rally and strong finish are a sign that the current upward
trend remains intact as support levels were able to hold. The only concern
was that volume was relatively weak running at only 77% of recent average
and much was said to come from heavy short covering.

The short term range now becomes 875 to 930, with a break and close of
either level determining the next directional move.

Support:    895 - 887 - 875*
Resistance: 911 - 921 - 930*

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