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sexta-feira, março 13, 2009

Our Mood for Today

It seems that the recovery process should be sustained for a couple of
sessions. It's a clearly reduction of the oversold market position. A
window of opportunity is emerging in my opinion. We should expect some
action on the Eurobond Market on the near future for some Brazilian
Corporates. Getting Momentum! Big names should come first: Banco do Brasil,
Eletrobras, CPFL, CSN, Braskem, Gerdau, Petrobras (again) are good
bets...To be confirmed!

IBGE has just announced its reading for retail sales in January. It came
well above market expectation with 6.0% growth year over year for the
narrow index, displaying a soft fall compared with average growth of about
9.1% for 2008. This corresponds to an increase of 1.4% at the margin. GOOD
NEWS!!!! Sales of food and beverages have sustained satisfactory growth.
Supermarket sales rose 6.5% year over year in the month, according to
results published by Abras, the trade association.

This group accounts for about half of IBGE's index. Sales of light
commercial vehicles recovered according to Anfavea, while building
materials will have continued to fall.

Analyzing each market now:

- Currency Market: We expect a continuity of the BRL appreciation during
today's trading session.

- Interest Rate Market: We uphold our call and think the best option is to
be LONG on the short term (JUN and JUL 09 DI contract) to get advantage of
future downside movements of the CB.

- Stock Exchange Market: The recovery should remain boosting market
performance during today's trading session.

- Sovereign and Corporate Debt Market: On the last couple of sessions a
tremendous improvement has occurred. Brazil 5 Y CDS is currently trading
around 360 bps levels. The BR40 has bids at 123.10 levels. Even the beef
sector has presented some recovery in a clear signal of better
understanding by investors. We can say that they are not putting everybody
on the same pot but analyzing carefully each one and deciding where to put
their money. Yesterday was also announced the result of pork exports in
February. It has presented an increase of almost 20% when compared with the
same period in 2008. Good news that should also push higher some bonds of
the sector. Let's keep our eyes open!

Have you all a pleasant weekend!

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