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quinta-feira, março 12, 2009

Our Mood for Today

As expected by the majority of market participants the Central Bank has cut
the SELIC RATE by 150 bps putting that rate now at 11.25%. The lowest level
achieved since at least 1994. Some analysts and banks in here are already
considering an increase of the easing cycle and working with 500 bps for
the whole period bearing in mind a SELIC Rate of 8.75% at the end of the
easing movement. We expect again another 150 bps for the next meeting that
will occur at the end of April.

FGV has just announced its industrial production index for São Paulo
(SPI-SP), which is a leading indicator of national industrial production.
This index rose 5.0% seasonally adjusted at the margin, pushing
year-over-year rate up to -12.8% from -18.0%.

IBGE will publish this morning its survey of employment and pay in industry
(PIMES) for the month of January. Employment fell 2.5% at the margin in the
last quarter of 2008, while the number of hours paid for fell 3.6%. Further
contraction is likely for January as the sector continues to adjust to the
new conditions in aggregate demand.

Analyzing each market now:

- Currency Market: We expect a continuity of the BRL appreciation during
today's trading session.

- Interest Rate Market: in line with the expectations the Central Bank has
cut the SELIC Rate by 150 bps. For now on we think the best option is to be
LONG on the short term (JUN and JUL 09 DI contract) to get advantage of
future downside movements of the CB.

- Stock Exchange Market: The performance should continue to be in line with
the US market.

- Sovereign and Corporate Debt Market: We expect a flat market during
today's trading session.


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