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terça-feira, março 10, 2009

Our Mood for Today

After a trading day greatly affected by Mr. Warren Buffet's affirmation
pointing that the US Economy "has fallen off a cliff", some relief is
expected during today's trading session in part with the help of Vikram
Pandit´s internal memorandum saying that Citigroup is having the best
quarter since 2007, when it last posted a profit. Also some technical
analysts are saying that some indexes are already on their bottom and a
rebound should not be discharged. To be confirmed.


In here the IBGE has published this morning the GDP statistics for the last
quarter of 2008. It came worse than expected with a contraction of 3.6% at
the margin. Nevertheless, this gives year-over year growth of 1.3% and 5.1%
growth all told in 2008. Production fell sharply in the period in response
to the impact of the international crisis, as inventory levels rose rapidly
and external demand plunged, with domestic demand falling less sharply.


Fipe has also just released it first four-week moving average of its IPC
for March. This index rose 0.24%, in line with our forecast (0.26%) and
decelerating from 0.27% at end-February. Food inflation have continued to
cool for the fourth consecutive week in the city of São Paulo, thanks to a
sharper fall in meat prices. Clothing prices also have continued to fall in
line with the usual seasonal trend, and the Housing group has been relieved
by dilution of the annual local council tax reset.


Analyzing each market now:


- Currency Market: With the expectation of a relief affecting all markets
we should expect some BRL appreciation during today's trading session.


- Interest Rate Market: As mentioned yesterday we have changed our forecast
for the next COPOM meeting and for now on we are expecting 150 bps cut.
Recent economic numbers are already increasing the pressure over the
Central Bank to boost the speed of the easing cycle. Despite expecting a
flat market during today's trading session, we uphold our call and
recommend a LONG position especially on the JAN 10 DI Contract.


- Stock Exchange Market: We expect some rebound during today's trading
session in line with the markets abroad.


- Sovereign and Corporate Debt Market: The problems faced by CEMEX makes us
more concerned about the corporate market... Will Brazilian Corporates
demand also be affected even with a different backdrop when compared with
the Mexican Economy? I'd like to discuss this issue with you... Call us to
talk about it...

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