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sexta-feira, novembro 28, 2008

TWG - Black Friday: Stocks and Bonds

Tradewire Market Update

Stocks have managed to retain the bulk of their gains from earlier in the
week, although they are a bit weaker this morning the damage has been
contained. It would not be surprising to see the market correct some of the
massive gains which basically saw ESZ8 rise by about 20% from last Friday's

However, for today expect little to happen as most people on the floor
(whoever is actually left as most firms are running on skeleton crews)
profess a general reluctance to sell today. As the old adage goes: "Never
sell a quiet market..."

Technically ESZ8 has encountered resistance in the form of the 21-day MA
close to 891 (actual high 893.50). Next resistance targets are in the 913/18
zone which coincide with previous rejection highs as well as the 40-day MA.
Support remains between 835/30 which not only represents the prior base, the
8-day MA but is also the 38% fibo of the preceeding rally. For the current
recovery to continue, it is crucial for support at 835 hold on a closing
basis going forward.


Treasuries have continued to rise given the bleak economic outlook and
fueled by month-end buying (Index extension of 0.12yrs). Also, the fact that
today is the 'year end' for many Wall St firms is only helping to keep a bid
in the treasury market as participants move away from risk and 'window
dress' their balance sheets. 10yr yields are now comfortably trading below
the 3% mark, and its hard to say how much lower they can go given that we
are in unchartered territory and yields have never been this low. For now
the bias is neutral and will trade the range between 3.03% and 2.91%. It is
likely to be a very quiet day so best to keep a low profile as there is no
data or Fedspeak to trade off of and the focus will remain on the behavior
of equities.

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