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sexta-feira, novembro 28, 2008

Our Mood for Today - LatinBankers

Black Friday = Good Sales? The results of today's behavior of American
Citizens in another black Friday will be a good picture of the effects
of current Crisis on the Americans' expending standards. A shift for a
new situation, much more cautious, when compared with the last yeas,
since the mid-1990, is something to be expected. Nevertheless retail
companies have already announced extremely aggressive discounts to
stimulate people desire to spend... To be confirmed! Despite all
stimulus it is a consensus that America should save more money and
change their way of spending it, having a more prudent income-based
lifestyles. An interesting article released today on the NYT is
addressing exactly this issue. Check it by clicking the link below:


Also on our radar today is Russia efforts to reduce the outflow of
capital from the country. The Central Bank has increased the interest
rates again. As previously mentioned here, the extremely great
dependency of OIL and GAS exports and last years external reliance for
funding are now hurting the economy and their currency. We have
suffered the same in the past before 1999 when the BRL depreciation
took place and we shift the Central Bank approach for the FX. We
should expect something like this occurring on Russia. The question is
when? Maybe fast to keep a good level of reserves...

Regarding our market and economy we should mention the discussions
concerning the Public Social Security. The Government is negotiating
with the Congress some changes of current rules that could seriously
prejudice Government Fiscal situation. Nothing has already been
decided but we are watching this carefully...

FGV published the survey of manufacturing confidence for the month of
November. With seasonal adjustment, the ICI (Manufacturing Confidence
Index) decrease 19.4%, on 84.1 points, the lowest result until July of 2003.

Analyzing each market now:

- Currency Market: We expect some BRL depreciation during today's
trading session.

- Interest Rate Market: The good inflation numbers released recently
continue to affect this market increasing the tightening movement of
the curve. Certainly a good momentum to be LONG!

- Stock Exchange Market: We expect some profit taking movement during
today's trading session.

- Sovereign and Corporate Debt Market: Not too much movement is
expected for today's trading session, nevertheless BR40 is up...

Have you all a nice weekend!!

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